Feedback of US Tanker bid :
After that Boeing won the bid, most analysts have come to the same conclusions that I was supporting.
Here's the full shot of my conclusions on this contract:
Boeing had no choice except to win this contract.
Otherwise, this would have greatly jeopardized its position towards the Pentagon :
Lost of credibility
Open-equal with competitors
Concequently, its aggressive bid is a real challenge:
Risk of overcost: high
Risk of delay: average
Risk of loss / in-question of the contract (including options): low
Commercial image: Large increase
Credibility (towards the Pentagon): average/low gain
International credibility: Large increase (success) / Medium increase (semi-successfully)
In case of failure or partial failure:
Credibility (towards the Pentagon): significant decline
International Credibility: mid / low fall
Commercial image: low fall
In case of failure (or partial failure) while EADS NA wins the AAS helicopters contract:
This is where EADS has all his playing card. Under the combination of these two conditions, EADS could become the Pentagon's preference...
Credibility of Boeing (towards the Pentagon): significant decline
Credibility of EADS (towards the Pentagon): Large increase
Commercial image of EADS : average increase
... become the Pentagon's preference, yes, but why?
In particular the market for tactical transports aircrafts (cargo aircrafts). Today, the USAF received its last C-17. After the year 2013 it did not order more.
Due to that, it is reasonable to think that the USAF will launch a proposal bid for a new generation airlifter with first deliveries in 2018...
At this time, the A400M (note: smaller than the C17) will be reliable and operational in several NATO countries.
... A government / military program, why?
Actually, the direct impact on the commercial image is less than the business marketing itself.
However, there are at least 3 reasons for the interest of these companies with military and government contracts:
The credibility towards the civilian market (commercial market) is still increasing (this because of the reliance by an authoritative body) and can make a difference.
This ensures a long-term book. And multiplication of these contracts provide a "comfortable mattress" in the long term.
This helps to develop new technologies and / or acquire full mastery of these technologies.
(The development of such technology has the advantage of being insured by the government book, larger and safer than a sum of commercial contracts).